My Academy Awards Predictions
(Because you've all been so patient in the waiting for them)
And, no, I didn't do all the categories. But this was still enough of a time killer in-between Modernist novels. So it's enough.


Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams in "Junebug" (Sony Pictures Classics)
Catherine Keener in "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics)
Frances McDormand in "North Country" (Warner Bros.)
Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features)
Michelle Williams in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features)

It seems a lot of these awards are fairly predictable (though I could be completely wrong, of course, but there’s a certain cowboy flick that will probably do well). That being said, Rachel Weisz seems the favorite here, but I’m guessing it will go to Amy Adams in a bit of a surprise. Obviously Weisz and Michelle Williams (I'm thinking they're the most likely three candidates) had challenging roles too, but Adams is in a smaller scale movie and the Academy might be proud of itself for rewarding it. And the Supporting Actress category seems a bit of a crapshoot most years anyway. So let's be trendy.

My guess at the winner: Amy Adams
My favorite of the nominees: Michele Williams

Best Supporting Actor:
George Clooney in "Syriana" (Warner Bros.)
Matt Dillon in "Crash" (Lions Gate)
Paul Giamatti in "Cinderella Man" (Universal and Miramax)
Jake Gyllenhaal in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features)
William Hurt in "A History of Violence" (New Line)

I think it has to be Clooney, simply because there’s probably not any room to reward him for the other work he’s done this year (unless Good Night gets a screenplay award, which is possible though not likely). And, besides that, he is pretty good in Syriana. Paul Giamatti should have gotten nominated last year (and probably should've won the thing) for best actor and there’s always the chance they’ll do the whole “let’s reward the guy we screwed last year” thing, but I think Clooney’s probably got this one.

My guess at the winner: George Clooney
My favorite nominee: Clooney

Best Animated Featured Film
"Howl's Moving Castle" (Buena Vista) Hayao Miyazaki
"Tim Burton's Corpse Bride" (Warner Bros.) Tim Burton and Mike Johnson
"Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" (DreamWorks Animation SKG) Nick Park and Steve Box

I'm going with Wallace & Gromit here. It's funny and fully deserving. I think. I mean, I know it's funny, but I'm not sure how deserving it is -- I haven't seen the other two. Still, seems like a logical bet.

My guess at the winner: Wallace & Gromit
My favorite nominee: W & G

Best Actress:
Judi Dench in "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (The Weinstein Company)
Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica" (The Weinstein Company and IFC Films)
Keira Knightley in "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features)
Charlize Theron in "North Country" (Warner Bros.)
Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox)

Of course, I’d pick Theron if the nomination were for Aeon Fluxx and not North Country (as E! reported on the morning of the nominations). But, alas.

Reese Witherspoon is great as June Carter Cash and, June Carter being a Saint and all, I’m a tough critic with this. But she’s as easy for me, as the hypothetical audience, to fall in love with as she is for Johnny in the movie so that's saying something. She’s probably the favorite -- she’s cleaned up at awards shows elsewhere, she’ll probably get the Oscar. Probably.

One major issue with that is that Felicity Huffman’s performance (which I, admittedly, haven’t seen. Nor has anyone, I’m assuming. Not even Huffman herself) seems to be the kind of thing that Oscar voters dig – the whole physical transformation that allows an actress to explore life from another perspective (and, no, Reese’s brown hair doesn’t fit here). But Huffman’s a TV actress and that might turn off potential voters as could the fact that no one’s seen the movie. But we can still assume she’s good, right? All that being said, I’m still assuming Witherspoon will win, but a Huffman win is possible, just probably not likely. The other three can enjoy lovely parting gifts and a wonderful excuse for a night out.

My guess at the winner: Reese Witherspoon
My favorite: Witherspoon

Best Actor:
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics)
Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow" (Paramount Classics, MTV Films and New Deal Entertainment)
Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features)
Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox)
David Strathairn in "Good Night, and Good Luck." (Warner Independent Pictures)

Okay, this seems like a no-brainer, but everybody here is really good in their respective movies, so it deserves at least some discussion before I say what you’d expect me to say. Terrence Howard’s great and the movie is better than it probably should be, but I just don’t think the movie itself is good enough to win it for him, at least not with this level of competition. Joaquin Phoenix is good, but I don’t think he’s great in the role. He won’t win.

And I absolutely dig David Strathairn’s performance – it’s simply amazing. But maybe too low key. Voters seem to like the performances based on real-life figures, but there’s another one of those in this category that probably too good not to reward. And, oh yeah, Heath Ledger’s great. But that movie’s going to win so much stuff, let’s give this one to somebody else. There are certainly enough people in this group that deserve to win.

So, yeah, I’m going with Philip Seymour Hoffman. He’s really, really good. And don’t you just want to see him up there? I mean, come on! How cool is that?

My guess at the winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman
My favorite nominee: Hoffman (but I really like Jeff Daniels in The Squid and the Whale. It’s too bad he couldn’t be worked in here)

Best Adapted Screenplay

"Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features) Screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
"Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics) Screenplay by Dan Futterman
"The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features) Screenplay by Jeffrey Caine
"A History of Violence" (New Line) Screenplay by Josh Olson
"Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks) Screenplay by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth

Well, Brokeback's likely the favorite here and that makes some sense -- it does a nice job as far as taking its original source and doing something engaging with it for the new media while not trashing the original. But, while I think the Brokeback screenplay will likely win, I'm putting my two cents in for Munich, which has the star power as far as the screenwriter goes and is really effective as far as giving the film its initial and dynamic voice.

My guess at the winnre: Brokeback Mountain

My favorite nominee: Munich

Best Original Screenplay

"Crash" (Lions Gate) Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis
"Good Night, and Good Luck."Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov (Warner Independent Pictures)
"Match Point" (DreamWorks) Written by Woody Allen
"The Squid and the Whale" (Samuel Goldwyn Films and Sony Pictures Releasing) Written by Noah Baumbach
"Syriana" (Warner Bros.) Written by Stephen Gaghan

I think Crash will win this one -- the Academy's going to feel obligated to give it something and the complicated overlaying of characters gives the script the illusion of depth even if the depth isn't there as powerfully as it is in some of the other choices here. Good Night has an outside shot at it and, while I think it's a better script, it probably will have to be satisfied with the nomination. It seems the voters actually get it right fairly frequently with the screenplay awards, but I don't see it happening -- The Squid & The Whale is a fantastic script that deserves to win. It won't.

My guess at the winner: Crash

My favorite of the nominees: The Squid & The Whale

Best Director:

I really don’t see any way Ang Lee doesn’t win this. I mean, I can envision Brokeback not getting Best Picture before I can envision him not winning this. All political volatility aside, it’s a lovely film, beautifully handled and shot. He’ll win and he ought to. No problems here. Right? Clooney's already got his supporting actor award, so he's happy. Spielberg's won stuff before so he's happy. Bennett Miller got recognized for Capote, so he's got to be cool with that. Paul Haggis and Crash? He's probably gotten the screenplay award at this point.

My guess: Ang Lee.
My favorite nominee: Lee.


Best Picture: Well, I’m guessing Brokeback will win and, of these nominees (four of which I think are really terrific films), it probably should (though Good Night, and Good Luck especially deserves some serious consideration and Munich, really, is a pretty fantastic film). But the biggest competition here is the movie of this group I think the least of– that’s Crash. I mean, it’s okay, but I found it heavy-handed and inorganic (I can get away with saying things like that, right?) Good performances, but the script itself didn’t really allow characters to rise to the surface. It’s a movie that cares less about character and more about theme and handles that theme without the deft hand and subtlety that would exist in a better movie. But it’s still a factor and it's chances have really grown. Those late campaigns do wonders for a movie's credibility (it seemed last year like Million Dollar Baby just kept building momentum until it won the big one). But I'm still thinking that Brokeback is just too much a cultural phenomenom to ignore. And, when given the chance, Oscar's not afraid to celebrate the cultural phenomenom. For it to not win at this point would make the Academy look bad.

My guess at the winner: Brokeback Mountain
My favorite of the nominees: Brokeback and Good Night, and Good Luck.